AGP Executive Report

NZ–Korea Diplomacy: Korea and New Zealand vice-ministers met in Seoul to deepen energy cooperation and coordinate amid Middle East and regional security pressures. Aviation & Travel: Air Canada tells customers it expects no jet-fuel shortage to disrupt summer flights, after earlier Europe fuel-supply fears. Power & Weather: Lightning storms hit central NZ, knocking out power for thousands, with MetService warning of further thunderstorms, heavy rain and damaging gusts. Cyber & Fraud: Meta, Microsoft and Coinbase helped dismantle Southeast Asia scam networks, taking down 1.4m accounts and freezing $3m in crypto, with arrests reported. Security Alert: Five Eyes warns China is using LinkedIn and job sites to recruit spies by posing as HR and consultancy staff targeting defence and policy personnel. Aviation Industry Move: New Zealand Airports Association chief Billie Moore is taking a global government-affairs role at aviation regulator OneReg. Business & Markets: NZX50 slipped for a third day as Middle East nerves weighed on sentiment and construction activity data pointed to softer momentum. Property & Development: A Katikati container terminal plan is being replaced after community backlash and weather-related road concerns. Sports Media Rights: TVNZ and Sky are set to battle for NRL broadcast rights, with a new five-year deal expected to be negotiated soon.

Housing & Construction: New Zealand home building has hit a 10-year low, with residential construction volume down 5% to NZ$17.6b in the year to March as higher rates and uncertainty sap demand, even as consents rise 11% and economists expect some lift later in the year. Markets: The NZX 50 slipped for a third day as Middle East tensions kept investors cautious, while Ngāi Tahu’s partial Sanford sale and weaker construction and retail sentiment weighed; Spark also sank to 15-year lows. Payments & Costs: The Commerce Commission has proposed capping Mastercard and Visa commercial credit card interchange fees, aiming to cut business costs by about $40m a year. Insurance & Risk Funding: The Insurance Council is pushing to replace the FENZ levy with a simpler Community Protection Levy to fund pre-disaster resilience, while Finance Minister Nicola Willis says a separate levy may not be needed. Espionage & Cyber/Recruitment: Five Eyes agencies warn Chinese intelligence is targeting people with access to sensitive information via LinkedIn and job sites, prompting fresh scrutiny of online hiring scams. Geopolitics & Trade: China has banned four New Zealand MPs from entering for a year after a Taiwan visit, and the US has proposed 12.5% forced-labour tariffs on dozens of countries including New Zealand—raising trade risk for exporters. Energy & Regulation: Fuel security tensions continue as Shane Jones criticises WorkSafe tank upgrade rules, arguing they could reduce storage capacity.

Music & Talent Pipeline: Universal Music New Zealand has launched nextWAV., a 12-month artist development programme for secondary school students, pairing workshops and mentorship with industry access to help emerging Kiwi recording artists build sustainable careers. Dairy Markets: Ornua’s purchasing price index rose 2.2% in May to 129.8, implying an indicative milk return of 35.02c/l ex VAT, after mixed Global Dairy Trade movements. Tourism & Property: Queenstown’s The Remarkables has lodged a fast-track application to expand into Doolans Basin, aiming to nearly double ski area size and lift visitor capacity, with an estimated annual economic boost up to $168m. Housing Watch: Cotality says national housing values are “treading water” with May’s median at $808,187, down 0.1% on April and 17% below the early-2022 peak, while Auckland and Wellington remain subdued. Trade & Risk: The US is proposing Section 301 tariffs of up to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, including New Zealand, tied to forced-labour enforcement failures—raising compliance and supply-chain uncertainty for exporters. Insurance & Resilience: The Insurance Council is pushing for a Community Protection Levy to replace the FENZ levy, arguing it would simplify funding and free up $600m-$700m a year for pre-disaster risk reduction. Health Funding Gap: A health economist warns Budget 2026’s health spending is likely to be absorbed by inflation and demand pressures, leaving limited room to fix access and inequity barriers. Consumer Pressure: SPCA adoptions fell by nearly 2,400 over five years as cost-of-living strains pet owners, alongside rising demand for free vaccination events. Tech & Privacy: Commentary highlights how New Zealand’s Privacy Act framework and the Biometric Processing Privacy Code 2025 will shape AI adoption, especially where biometric data is involved.

Markets & Rates: The NZX 50 slipped 0.4% to 13,115.08 as Middle East tensions and higher oil weighed on sentiment, with Spark hitting new lows on dividend doubts and Watercare signalling higher costs for Auckland developers. Water & Housing Costs: Watercare plans a 20% infrastructure charge hike for developers and will consult on new prices as it ramps up growth spending, adding to pressure on building and rates. Dairy Outlook: DairyNZ says the 2024/25 season delivered record milk prices and stronger farm balance sheets, but warns 2025/26 and 2026/27 costs are biting, with breakeven milk price forecast to rise to $8.79/kgMS. Competition & Consumer Watchdog: The Commerce Commission is preparing court action against BP Oil NZ over alleged pricing errors and missed discounts. Finance & Regulation: The FMA has filed 61 mortgage fraud charges against six people. Business & Property: Barfoot & Thompson reports May sales up 29% on April (but down year-on-year), with prices edging higher amid volatile month-to-month trends. Tech & Cybersecurity: Anthropic is expanding Project Glasswing, extending access to its Mythos cybersecurity model to about 150 more organisations across 15+ countries, including India and New Zealand. Labour & Migration: An Auckland company has been ordered to repay a migrant worker nearly $45,000 after unlawfully charging for a job and visa-related arrangement.

Watercare Pricing: Auckland water and wastewater bills rise from 1 July by 7.2%, with Watercare saying the increase funds a $13.8b decade-long upgrade programme. Developer Charges: The Infrastructure Growth Charge lifts 20% under regulatory settings, adding pressure to new builds and projects. Energy Retailer Backlash: Consumer NZ says no energy retailer deserves its People’s Choice award, citing falling satisfaction and concerns about pricing and profits. Commerce Commission Action: The Commerce Commission will take BP to court over alleged pricing errors and failure to apply discounts at BP Connect. NZX50 Moves: The NZX50 slid 0.6% after the long weekend, with Heartland’s planned TSB deal and Green Cross’s sale of The Doctors among key movers. Banking Deal: Heartland’s proposed $620m purchase of TSB lifts optimism on scale, while Fitch moved Heartland’s outlook positive. Gas Exploration Fund: Businesses have lodged 11 expressions of interest for the Government’s $200m gas exploration co-investment fund, as debate continues over whether an offshore exploration ban could return. Compliance Tech: Napier AI and Concentrix team up to deliver AI-powered AML and sanctions screening across Australia and New Zealand. Mortgage Pressure: New data shows 134,000 homeowners now hold mortgages above $1m, up 15% year-on-year.

Banking & M&A: Heartland Group is nearing a three-month high after agreeing to buy TSB for $620m in a vendor-financed deal, with the Toi Foundation set to hold nearly 18% of the enlarged group if it clears the vote. Healthcare Deal: Green Cross Health has surged after agreeing to sell its GP arm, The Doctors (65 clinics, 413,000 enrolled patients), to Tend Health for $270m, with a shareholder vote due in July. Markets: The NZX50 fell 0.6% back from the King’s Birthday weekend as AI sentiment cooled and oil stayed elevated amid Middle East uncertainty. Local Infrastructure: Budget 2026 delivers $85m for Coromandel road resilience, including a Kirikiri Stream bridge replacement and strengthening high-risk SH25 sites. Regional Rates: Waimakariri Council kept its indicative rate rise under 5% (4.99%), while Masterton flagged Middle East-driven cost pressures that could lift next year’s rates. Transport Projects: Port Marlborough has appointed HEB Construction to redevelop ferry infrastructure for the 2029 ferry rollout, despite Treasury concerns about schedule risk. Governance & Community Assets: Hutt Rotary has withdrawn from the Gibbes Watson Pavilion rescue after council liability demands, leaving demolition a real possibility.

Payments & Fintech: A2A (account-to-account) transfers are accelerating in New Zealand as instant bank-to-bank rails spread, driven by local direct-debit style infrastructure and cross-border standards. Health & Policy: Opinion and analysis ask whether Wegovy can meaningfully move New Zealand’s obesity crisis, or whether it mainly treats symptoms in a system shaped by food, environment and access. Dairy & Exports: US dairy output is rising but exports are absorbing supply, a reminder of how global demand swings can quickly reshape milk and cheese markets. Regional Business: Bay of Plenty kiwifruit leaders back a Government-led regional deal to ease infrastructure bottlenecks and support growers and seasonal RSE workers. Housing & Social Housing: Kāinga Ora has listed a $20m Albany site after scrapping a “twin towers” plan, with critics pointing to millions spent on a vacant asset. Workplace Rights: A court case highlights how employers may need to uphold Pasifika values in practice, not just in policy. Tourism: Queenstown ski fields are preparing for an early opening as visitor demand lifts winter bookings. Markets: ASX trading was mixed over the King’s Birthday long weekend, with NZ dual-listed heavyweights sliding and the kiwi dollar wobbling on rate expectations. Sports & Economy: Moana Pasifika’s future is being explored after liquidation, with officials tasked to find financially sustainable options.

RBNZ & FX Watch: The kiwi edged to a two-month high versus the Aussie dollar as markets priced a more hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand path, though gains later faded as traders weighed the next move. Fuel Security: MBIE says New Zealand fuel stocks remain comfortably above minimum requirements, with jet fuel up and extra diesel reserves on the way—two shipments covering about nine days of typical diesel use, stored at Marsden Point. Budget 2026 Backlash: Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ Budget 2026 is being framed as austerity by critics, with claims of pressure on healthcare, education and welfare, while the government targets a return to surplus. Infrastructure Value for Money: A WSP and Helen Clark Foundation report argues cost–benefit analysis is used inconsistently across agencies, calling for a more disciplined, system-wide approach to infrastructure spending. Corporate Dealmaking: Jardine Matheson’s AUD3.4b move to buy I‑MED Radiology Network highlights ongoing appetite for healthcare assets, including links to radiology AI. Governance & Compliance: Auckland Council says a Manurewa Local Board member will keep pay while the SFO assesses a complaint—raising questions about transparency versus process. Energy & Geopolitics: Markets remain on edge as US-Iran ceasefire talks drag on, keeping oil and currencies jumpy.

Budget 2026: New Zealand’s Budget 2026 leans on cost-of-living relief tied to fuel prices, with a temporary $50 weekly boost to the In-Work Tax Credit, plus $150m for strategic fuel reserves and a $450m contingency fund, while also pushing a $1.773b Cambridge–Piarere road project and a $153.6m health cyber security package (with Health NZ adding $300m for digital upgrades). Reserve Bank focus: The RBNZ is stressing “anchored” inflation expectations, citing surveys showing experts relatively calm and longer-term expectations around 2.2% for five years. Crypto crackdown: IRD is stepping up enforcement against crypto investors, arguing many trades are taxable even when people don’t cash out, as new international reporting expands what it can see. Trade & markets: India and Oman’s CEPA starts June 1, delivering zero-duty access for major Indian labour-intensive exports, while global central banks stay cautious as energy-driven inflation persists. Local business & tech: Kiwis get a Tesla Outlet Adapter for Model Y L vehicle-to-load power, and Kiwibank begins open banking roll-out. Honours with business relevance: King’s Birthday Honours 2026 spotlights education, health and Māori leadership, including Waikato educator Susan Hassall and broadcaster Barry Soper, alongside sport and governance figures.

Critical Infrastructure Security: New Zealand is among 17 countries backing a new underwater infrastructure defence framework, GUIDE, launched at the Shangri-La Dialogue to protect cables and energy/telecom networks that underpin trade and stability. NZ Health Funding: Budget 2026 delivers record health investment, with $5.8b+ in new Vote Health operating funding and a $1.37b annual uplift aimed at cutting waits and boosting frontline capacity. Budget Politics & Equity: The Green Party says Budget 2026 prioritises the super-rich and leaves Pasifika communities behind, while Nicola Willis also flags higher NZ Super Fund contributions over coming years as returns assumptions are lowered. Trade & Diplomacy: New Zealand and the Philippines sign a Joint Economic Commission arrangement to lift trade and investment, targeting a 50% increase by 2030. Food & Consumer Pressure: Beef prices are at record highs overseas, driven mainly by drought-reduced cattle herds and steady demand—fueling sticker shock. Safety & Regulation: Auckland Council faces feedback on proposed tighter lifejacket rules after drowning deaths, including many where victims weren’t wearing lifejackets. Business & Markets: NZX50 has its best month since September as Infratil surges, while RBNZ commentary keeps markets focused on the path of interest rates.

Budget 2026 Focus: Auckland’s Budget pitch leans on health land purchases, housing consenting reforms and transport/resilience spending, with the message that “when Auckland succeeds, New Zealand succeeds.” Energy & Gas Markets: Parliament passed the Gas (Market Transparency) Amendment Bill to improve access to timely gas reserve, production and demand data—aimed at reducing uncertainty for businesses as supplies tighten. Health System Pressure: The Aged Care Association warns Budget 2026 missed a chance to stabilise aged residential care, saying bed closures and mothballing will keep pushing strain onto hospitals. Local Food Resilience: Hastings and Central Hawke’s Bay mayors back new Agriculture funding as a start, but say a bigger feasibility study is needed after major processing closures to protect jobs and capability. Vehicle Rental Demand: New Zealand’s rental market is being shaped by cost-conscious travellers and growing group bookings, with larger vehicles in demand across Auckland and the South Island. Defence & Security: US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth again criticised low-spending allies, while New Zealand’s defence minister faced the “freeloading” line at Shangri-La. Crime & Governance: Pacific leaders are coordinating to counter organised crime and illicit drugs after a high-profile killing linked to the “Coconut Cartel.” Legal Fallout: Canadian poison-seller Kenneth Law pleaded guilty to 14 counts of aiding suicide, with sentencing set for September.

Public Health & Borders: Uganda’s Ebola border closure with Congo and the US plan to quarantine exposed Americans in Kenya are both being questioned as “distance-first” moves that may not beat faster surveillance and response capacity. NZ Markets: The NZX50 logged its best month since September, helped by Vista’s cloud gains and Infratil’s CDC data-centre momentum, alongside improving sentiment as US-Iran ceasefire hopes eased oil and yields. Budget 2026 & Regional Impact: Whanganui leaders welcomed some trades, education and health signals, but criticised gaps on council road upkeep and warned the Budget still misses key pressures on local services. Science & Health: A genomic breast cancer test trial suggests many women could safely skip chemotherapy, with NZ included in the international Optima study. Business & Consumer Trends: Residential infrared saunas are booming in NZ’s biggest cities, with Auckland the standout market for premium home wellness installs. Sports & Media Economy: World Cup betting is tipped to hit $50b+ globally, with “bet builders” and player-prop demand driving the next wave of wagering tech. Legal/Finance: ANZ says it will appeal a High Court class action ruling tied to mortgage disclosure failures, with its exposure estimated around $125m.

Markets & Budget Watch: The NZX 50 climbed 0.3% on Friday and is up 2.6% for the month, helped by Vista Group’s surge after new cloud customers and Infratil’s jump on a major CDC data-centre contract, while ANZ’s surveys suggest May sentiment wasn’t as bleak as April. Monetary Policy: ANZ’s chief economist says the Government’s projected return to surplus may not happen, while the RBNZ is signalling rates may need to rise sooner. Banking & Regulation: ANZ will appeal a High Court ruling in a big class action over mortgage disclosure failures, with maximum liability estimated at about $125m. Health Infrastructure: Budget 2026 includes “critical” early funding for Tauranga Hospital redevelopment, covering design and enabling works ahead of later construction decisions. Aviation & Tax: Budget 2026 backs aircraft lease tax relief, but aviation groups warn skills shortages remain. Business & Consumer: McDonald’s New Zealand profit jumped to $108.7m as it plans six new restaurants, and Green Cross Health says it’s still in talks over a potential sale of its medical division. Tech & Safety: A study finds Singaporeans use AI for major life events but feel unconfident spotting scams and deepfakes.

Budget 2026: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says the Budget is on track for growth outpacing peers and a return to surplus sooner, but he admits there’s no political consensus to fix superannuation settings as costs surge. Public Finance & Tax: Treasury forecasts a surplus earlier than expected and introduces changes including a higher FIF threshold (from $50,000 to $100,000) plus options that could shift how investors are taxed. Super & KiwiSaver: KiwiSaver providers warn retirement settings can’t be kicked down the road, with Willis signalling the system will need change. Transport & Regional Roads: Rail gets a $1.075b package with $106.9m for Auckland and Wellington renewals, while Gisborne hopes $75m for SH2 Waioweka Gorge resilience will reduce closure risk. Housing & Social Policy: Kāinga Ora tenants speak out over social housing rent reforms, while Budget also backs a three-day postnatal stay plan. Business & Markets: NZX50 slips as Middle East tensions bite; Synlait faces scrutiny after its latest CEO churn, and Mainland Poultry is sold to private equity in a deal valued around $300m. Insolvency & Cost Pressure: Hospitality liquidations rise sharply, including Auckland’s Pikuniku Cafe. People & Productivity: Rural households are hit hardest by fuel costs, and new research highlights a “geography of despair” tied to poverty, health and housing stress.

Budget 2026 Markets & Macro: NZX50 edged down 0.2% as Middle East tensions dented optimism, while investors digested Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ fiscally tight Budget and a faster return to surplus on (widely seen as optimistic) forecasts. Budget 2026 Housing & Local Growth: Councils get up to $400m via a Growth Fund incentive to push through more consents, with payments tied to consent targets; LGNZ welcomed the start but wants more in future years. Budget 2026 Transport: Government backs the Waikato Expressway extension (Cambridge to Piarere) with $1.77b, but Labour warns of an “alarming” cost jump versus earlier estimates; rail renewals also land, with Greater Wellington urging sustained investment to restore reliability. Budget 2026 Social Policy: Child poverty groups and Women’s Refuge say the Budget misses targets and offers limited real relief for families in material hardship. Budget 2026 Tech & Public Sector: Tech Users Association criticises the tech plan as disjointed, while the Budget’s AI/job-cut promise raises questions about delivery details. Finance Sector: A new prudential levy on banks and other financial players is set to fund regulation, with ACT and others arguing it should reduce compliance burden and improve tax settings (including FIF changes). Business & Economy Watch: Mainfreight shares rose after results met expectations; dairy-linked units rallied on Fonterra earnings guidance. Tourism Demand: Winter travel is lifting vehicle hire, with group travel driving demand for larger vans at major airports.

Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank held the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% in a split 3–3 vote, with Governor Anna Breman using her casting vote to keep rates steady but warning hikes are “very likely” ahead, while mortgage rates are expected to rise further. Budget 2026 Watch: With Budget Day underway, attention is on the tight operating allowance, smaller health moves so far, and what could still land for productivity and secondary education as the coalition tries to balance restraint with voter priorities. Business & Markets: NZX50 and the kiwi lifted after the OCR hold, with analysts pointing to mixed rate-sensitive stocks and upgrades supporting some infrastructure and property names. Cyber Risk: A new survey says many Australian firms expect ransomware attacks and are still more likely to pay ransoms than the global average, with New Zealand included in the study. Healthcare Capacity: Dialysis patients in Tauranga faced long waits, but Health NZ confirmed spaces were offered multiple times, highlighting ongoing pressure on haemodialysis capacity. Regional Economy: Northland’s Ruakākā wastewater offshore outfall plan moved closer, as the Bream Bay pipeline would relieve capacity constraints and support development. Energy & Industry: Tiwai Point’s fourth potline restart is gaining momentum after Rio Tinto and Contact Energy signed a letter of intent, potentially boosting jobs and export output.