AGP Executive Report

Markets: The NZX 50 slipped 0.1% over the week as oil prices and concerns about AI spending unsettled investors. Serko led losses, while Gentrack rose. Inflation and Rates: Annual inflation eased to 3.7% in September, but most economists and markets still expect the Reserve Bank to raise the OCR on October 28. Trade: The India free-trade deal is now in force, opening new opportunities for exporters; New Zealand and India have also agreed to exchange trade-origin data electronically. Business Outlook: CEO confidence reached a nine-year high, though subdued profit expectations and policy uncertainty remain concerns. NZ First proposed targeted 50% accelerated depreciation for manufacturing and exporters. Corporate Moves: SkyCity will invite takeover proposals through a structured process while pursuing online casino licences. Rocket Lab launched its 98th Electron mission from Mahia, deploying three satellites. Tesla has cancelled Cybertruck plans for New Zealand and Australia and says it will refund deposits.

Markets & Rates: Oil surged on fears of renewed US-Iran conflict, while the NZX 50 fell as investors braced for an expected Reserve Bank rate hike on October 28. Annual inflation eased to 3.7% in September, but banks expect it to rise again. Trade: The India-New Zealand free trade agreement is now in force, opening new tariff-reduced access for exporters; the countries have also agreed to exchange trade-origin data electronically. Business Outlook: CEOs cite policy uncertainty as a major concern, even as business confidence reaches a nine-year high. Election Economics: The Greens’ fiscal plan promises an extra $3 billion a year for health, funded partly by new taxes and higher debt, putting economic policy at the centre of the campaign. Workplace: About 300 Auckland IKEA workers plan a four-hour strike over weekend penalty rates and other pay and leave demands. Clean Energy: Solar company Lodestone Energy listed on the NZX after a $75 million IPO, backed by about 10,000 shareholders.

Inflation and Rates: Annual inflation eased to 3.7% in September, but rising core measures have all four major banks forecasting a 0.25-point OCR hike on 28 October — a move that could push borrowing costs higher. India Trade: The new free-trade deal is in force, opening tariff cuts for exporters; a separate pact to exchange origin data electronically is expected to smooth customs and trade. Markets: The NZX 50 slipped as oil-price worries weighed on regional shares. Solar developer Lodestone made its NZX debut after a $75 million IPO, attracting about 10,000 shareholders. Business Costs: The Commerce Commission’s planned cut to commercial card fees is expected to save businesses $40 million a year.

Inflation: Annual CPI eased to 3.7% in September from 4.1%, but petrol, electricity and rates remain costly, and economists expect inflation to rise again. Business Costs: The Commerce Commission has capped interchange fees on commercial Visa and Mastercard transactions, aiming to save businesses about $40 million a year. Markets & Investment: Renewable power company Lodestone Energy rose on its NZX debut after raising $75 million and attracting about 10,000 shareholders. Deep-tech investor Outset Ventures is raising a $50 million fund for growth-stage startups, anchored by $10 million from NZ Growth Capital Partners. Trade: The India–New Zealand free-trade agreement is now in force, opening wider market access and cutting tariffs on most Kiwi exports; a new electronic data-sharing pact is intended to streamline trade. Housing: House prices are forecast to keep drifting lower until mid-2027, extending pressure on household wealth and consumer spending.

India Trade: The India–New Zealand FTA is now in force, and a new customs data-sharing pact aims to make it easier for businesses to verify goods’ origin and claim tariff benefits. Housing: ANZ expects house prices to keep edging down through mid-2027, citing higher interest rates and recent market weakness. Markets: The NZX 50 rose 1% as Ebos, Fletcher Building and Vulcan Steel gained after shareholder updates; Meridian also lifted the market. Energy: New Zealand has opened its first offshore wind feasibility permit round, inviting proposals for projects off Taranaki and Waikato. Public Projects: Four people, including former Kāinga Ora and Tāmaki Regeneration officials, face charges over allegedly taking more than $4.2 million in bribes linked to Auckland housing projects.

Trade: The India–New Zealand free trade agreement is now in force, opening new export opportunities. Zespri says kiwifruit will get an initial 6,250 tonnes of tariff-free access to India each year, rising to 15,000 tonnes by year six. Dairy: Synlait has made Leon Fung permanent CEO as it pursues a recovery after a $75.4 million FY26 loss; net debt fell to $215 million. Global Dairy Trade prices rose 2.5% in US dollars, led by milk powders. Integrity: Four people, including former Kāinga Ora and Tāmaki Regeneration Company officials, face Serious Fraud Office charges over alleged bribes exceeding $4.2 million linked to Auckland housing projects. Energy: New Zealand has opened its first offshore renewable-energy feasibility permit round, covering areas off Taranaki and Waikato, with applications open until April 2027. Markets: The NZX 50 fell for a third day as oil prices and inflation concerns weighed on investors.

India Trade Deal: The India–New Zealand free trade agreement took effect on 20 October, giving Indian goods duty-free access to New Zealand and making more than half of New Zealand’s exports to India tariff-free. Wine, meat and forestry exporters see new opportunities, though access for some products is limited by quotas. Valocity secured what Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called its biggest-ever deal on day one. Markets: The NZX 50 fell for a third straight session, down 0.2%, as oil and bond yields weighed on sentiment. Infratil extended losses amid concerns about data-centre investment. Energy Investment: Genesis opened a 200MWh battery at Huntly, while SunScout New Zealand advanced plans for a 1.5MW solar and battery project at Te Akau. Kiwi Growth Funding: Simplicity invested $50 million in Icehouse Ventures’ growth fund, backing high-growth New Zealand companies. FNZ Dispute: The High Court ruled that claims alleging directors breached their duties in a $4.6 billion shareholder dispute should be heard in New Zealand, not private arbitration.

India Trade: The New Zealand–India free trade agreement took effect on October 20, opening new export opportunities for Kiwi wine, meat, wood and other products. The test now is turning better market access into lasting sales. Kiwi Investment: Simplicity has committed $50 million to Icehouse Ventures’ growth fund, backing high-growth New Zealand companies. Business Conditions: Services-sector growth cooled in September as retail contracted, while wholesale expanded. Markets are also pricing in an almost certain OCR increase on October 28, despite forecasts that annual inflation has eased. Markets: The NZX 50 fell as Infratil was caught in a global souring of sentiment on AI-related investments. Banking: BNZ says no New Zealand jobs are affected by parent National Australia Bank’s plan to cut up to 2,500 roles in Australia.

Trade: The India–New Zealand FTA takes effect Tuesday, giving Indian goods immediate duty-free access on covered lines. Tariff cuts for New Zealand exports will be phased in over up to 10 years, with both countries targeting NZ$7 billion in goods and services trade by 2030. Rates and inflation: Banks forecast September-year inflation of 3.7% to 4%, down from 4.1% in June. Dearer fuel and a weaker kiwi keep an October OCR rise on the table for ANZ, while Westpac expects a pause until December. Markets: The NZX 50 fell 0.7% to 13,652, with Infratil weighed by concerns over AI infrastructure spending. A2 Milk and Fonterra gained as stronger Chinese growth lifted exporters. Household budgets: Asking prices for apartments, townhouses and units dropped 4% in the year to September, including nearly 8% in Auckland. Fixed mortgage rates for two to five years are now above 5%. NZIER warns higher KiwiSaver contributions could leave some households with less emergency cash and slower mortgage repayments. Business pulse: Services activity extended its growth run to four months in September, though momentum cooled. Higher fuel costs also widened the annual trade deficit to NZ$1.97 billion.

Trade: India’s first tariff cuts under the New Zealand FTA take effect on October 20: sheep meat gets zero duty, while kiwifruit faces a 15% tariff. Trade with ASEAN is also growing, with imports up 15% to $16 billion and exports up 11% to $9.6 billion in the year to September. Economic Pulse: New Zealand reported a $1.971 billion trade shortfall. Services activity eased in September, while inflation is forecast to slow to 3.7%; economists still expect the Reserve Bank to raise its cash rate. Business: Fractional leadership has surged 90% since April 2025, with more than 1,000 senior executives now working part-time across New Zealand businesses. Household Finance: NZIER warns higher KiwiSaver contribution rates could leave some savers worse off.

India Trade Deal: New Delhi has notified its first tariff cuts under the New Zealand FTA, which takes effect October 20. Qualifying sheep meat gets duty-free access, while some kiwi fruit imports will face a 15% tariff, opening a new market for exporters. Rates Watch: Economists expect September inflation to soften only briefly and still see an October 28 Reserve Bank rate hike as likely, keeping pressure on borrowers and businesses. Renewable Energy: Fonterra has contracted output from the 110MW Karioi solar farm under a second power agreement with Anza Power, adding to the dairy giant’s renewable electricity supply. Food Innovation: New Zealand precision-fermentation startup Daisy Lab’s assets have been acquired by Mycofeast, giving the Australian company a foothold in alternative dairy proteins. Fuel Imports: New Zealand bought €19 million of oil products from India, Türkiye and Brunei in September; a research group estimates some shipments were refined from Russian crude.

Inflation and Rates: September inflation is forecast at 3.7% to 4%, but rising fuel costs and a weaker dollar keep an October 28 OCR hike firmly in play. Trade: India’s first tariff cuts under the New Zealand free trade deal take effect October 20, including duty-free sheep meat and a 15% tariff on kiwifruit, opening new opportunities for exporters. Circular Economy: A new Pukekohe plant is re-refining waste oil into reusable base oil, turning a resource previously burned for fuel into a product for new lubricants. Auckland Businesses: City Rail Link ridership has surged, and some Karangahape Road hospitality operators report a welcome lift in customers—though it is too soon to know if the gains will last. Corporate Moves: SkyCity has agreed to sell Auckland’s Grand Hotel for $125 million.

India–NZ Trade: India has notified its first tariff cuts under the new free-trade deal, setting sheep-meat duties at zero and kiwifruit tariffs at 15%; Kerala has also sent its first export shipment under the agreement. Digital Banking: BNZ says open-banking payments have jumped nearly 14-fold, as the Commerce Commission says the system can cost businesses less than Visa and Mastercard debit. Fonterra: CFO Andrew Murray is leaving for an outside role, while the co-operative has contracted solar power from Christchurch’s Kōwhai Park farm. Business Conditions: Company failures have reached a decade high, even as manufacturing activity continues to grow, highlighting an uneven recovery. Deals: Mycofeast has acquired New Zealand biotech Daisy Lab’s precision-fermentation assets, while SkyCity has agreed to sell Auckland’s Grand Hotel for $125 million.

Markets: Oil’s sharp rise and a sell-off in AI shares soured investor mood, though the NZX bucked the wider regional trend. Banking: BNZ open-banking payments have jumped nearly 14-fold, as the Commerce Commission says the system can offer businesses a cheaper alternative to card networks. Fonterra: CFO Andrew Murray is leaving for an external role; separately, the co-operative has contracted more output from a solar farm to support its energy needs. Costs and business: Petrol topped $4 a litre, intensifying pressure on households and retailers. Business failures have reached a decade high, while September manufacturing activity continued to grow. Exports: New Zealand’s venison industry is seeing stronger overseas demand and tight supply, offering farmers a brighter outlook after difficult years.

Markets: The NZX 50 fell 0.57% on Friday, with 41 stocks down. Infratil slipped as investors weighed concerns about debt in the AI data-centre sector, while global markets rose. SkyCity: The casino operator has agreed to sell Auckland’s Grand Hotel for $221 million to Singapore-linked buyers, subject to conditions. Its shares gained 4% on Friday. Biotech: UK group Mycofeast has acquired Auckland-based Daisy Lab, adding its precision-fermented dairy protein research and 500-litre pilot system. No redundancies are planned. Trade: The New Zealand–India free trade deal is due to take effect on October 20, opening new opportunities for exporters. National has also set a goal to double exports by 2034. Business activity: New Zealand’s manufacturing sector continued to grow in September, while open banking payments reached more than 401,000 transactions worth over $130 million in July.

Export Push: National says food and fibre exports have reached a record $65.2 billion, putting the sector $4 billion ahead of schedule toward its goal of doubling export value by 2034. Its plan includes 19 new standards to cut farm red tape. Retail Squeeze: Core retail spending rose just 0.1% year-on-year in September, while petrol and diesel prices jumped 24.3% and 55.8% over the year, adding to pressure on households and business costs. Open Banking: The Commerce Commission estimates businesses could save about $180 million a year by using bank payments instead of Visa and Mastercard debit. Westpac says its new tool, which automatically sorts applicants’ transaction data, has cut personal-loan application time by about 25%. Property Deal: SkyCity has conditionally agreed to sell Auckland’s Grand Hotel for $221 million to Singaporean property investors. Manufacturing: BusinessNZ says New Zealand’s manufacturing sector accelerated in September.