AGP Executive Report

Airline Competition: Air New Zealand and Virgin Australia are seeking approval for closer cooperation, arguing it could improve connectivity and fares while giving them a stronger challenge to Qantas. Election Economy: The Greens say their new development plan could create 284,000 jobs over four years, including 64,000 beyond Treasury’s forecast; National’s fiscal plan prioritises debt reduction, with tax cuts only a possibility once surpluses are established. Markets and Housing: The NZX 50 gained 0.5% as oil eased, but New Zealand home values fell 1.5% in the third quarter, with little sign of a spring lift. Trade and Investment: China’s premier has signalled interest in expanding cooperation with New Zealand in services and clean energy, while EonFibre has launched a connectivity service aimed at attracting data-centre investment. Business Moves: Heritage Lifecare has bought New Zealand Aged Care Services, adding 15 care homes and eight villages; Domino’s Australasian business faces another CEO departure, its third in under three years.

China Trade: Premier Li Qiang and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon discussed speeding up China–New Zealand talks on services trade under their free-trade agreement, alongside cooperation in renewables and electric vehicles. Housing: New Zealand home values fell 1.5% in the September quarter to an average $892,580, with Auckland down 2.5% and Wellington 3%. Queenstown bucked the trend, rising 3.1%. Buyers remain cautious amid economic uncertainty and the election. Markets: The NZX 50 gained 0.6% as falling oil prices and bond yields lifted major stocks, including Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and Infratil. Freight: Texel Air has added a second 737 freighter in New Zealand, bringing its local fleet to three and supporting regional and international cargo links. The two new aircraft represent a $95 million investment. Business Costs: Energy costs remain a major concern for local firms, while petrol prices have hit record highs, adding pressure for businesses and households.

Fiscal Plans: National says tax cuts are off the table until the books return to surplus, forecast for 2028/29, and plans to fund its books partly through cuts to foreign aid and welfare. Fuel Costs: 91 petrol averages $3.60 a litre, with oil producers and refiners among the biggest beneficiaries; the Government also collects more GST as prices rise. Business Cash Flow: Accountants warn 15 January is a crunch point for firms facing GST and provisional tax bills after the holiday slowdown; 81% say clients’ cash constraints can affect timely payments. Retail Outlook: Christmas hiring is gathering pace, with casual vacancies up 85% year on year, but September retail spending was down 1.3% from a year earlier. Property Risk: A new climate report warns around 10,000 homes in Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington and Dunedin could become difficult or costly to insure by 2035, potentially complicating mortgage access and sales.

Election Economics: ACT’s fiscal plan promises nearly $10 billion in public-service cuts, lower debt and a higher retirement age, alongside $653 million in disability-benefit cuts. Labour and the Greens have criticised the proposals, while Labour is also campaigning on a capital gains tax to fund health. Jobs and Growth: NZIER says young job seekers are being locked out as unemployment reaches crisis levels; the Greens propose guaranteed jobs for 16- to 24-year-olds. Business Conditions: Petrol has climbed above $3 a litre as EV registrations surge. Westpac has cut its 2026 house-price forecast amid slow sales, though auction activity has picked up. Trade and Infrastructure: A new freight and logistics hub has opened at the Port of Tauranga, while National proposes $300 million in loans for water storage and fertiliser security deals.

Youth Employment: NZIER says unemployment has reached 25.3% for 15–19-year-olds and 12% for 20–24-year-olds, warning an economic recovery may not be enough as AI reshapes work. The Greens propose a jobs pilot for 16–24-year-olds unemployed for six months, while Labour says it would back 30,000 apprentices. Cost-of-Living Plans: Labour is also promising a fuel-tax freeze, capped public transport fares and action on price gouging as election campaigns focus on household costs. Freight Investment: Texel Air has added a freighter to its New Zealand fleet, with another due in January; the airline says two aircraft serve NZ Post and Freightways. At Tauranga, 3 Islands Intermodal has opened a freight hub funded from company cash flow, strengthening its base at a key export gateway. Housing Pipeline: Christchurch issued consents for 4,773 new homes in the year to July, up 28% year on year, while Selwyn’s 2,355 consents rose 59%—a boost to work for local builders and suppliers, though consents do not guarantee completed homes.

Agriculture and Trade: National is pitching $300 million in low-cost water-storage loans, fertiliser supply agreements and a $10 million fund to support domestic nitrogen production, aiming to shore up farm inputs and supply chains. Election Economics: NZ First has pledged annual minimum-wage rises at least in line with inflation and a permanent Working for Families boost to $120 a week; it estimates the credit increase would cost $500 million to $600 million annually. Households and Transport: Petrol hit $3.35 a litre as electric-vehicle registrations surged 206% year on year in the third quarter, reflecting growing demand for lower running costs. Business Outlook: New Zealand businesses cite energy costs as a major concern, while Westpac expects annual inflation to reach 4.2% by year-end. Food and fibre exports have also reached a record high.

Household Support: NZ First would make its Working for Families boost permanent and lift the payment by $70 a week, a pledge the party estimates would cost $500 million to $600 million annually. Business Costs: Energy has become New Zealand businesses’ second-biggest concern, an ASB survey finds, with a third of firms raising prices. Exports: Food and fibre exports have hit a record $65.2 billion, underlining the sector’s importance to the economy. Agriculture: Dairy co-op Tatua reported a record payout to shareholders, while Federated Farmers welcomed National’s proposed $300 million in low-cost loans for water storage. Finance: Private credit is gaining ground as a funding source for New Zealand firms, while regulators keep watch on offshore risks and limited market data. Retail Expansion: Online grocer Paddock to Pantry plans to invest $25 million in more than 20 stores, aiming to become the country’s third-largest grocery chain.

Business Costs: Energy is now New Zealand firms’ second-biggest concern, an ASB survey found, with a third of businesses lifting prices. Record food and fibre exports of $65.2 billion offer a bright spot for the sector. Housing and Inflation: Home sales are taking longer, with the median reaching 48 days as volumes weaken. Petrol hit $3.53 a litre in early October, adding to pressure on household spending; one bank warns housing could remain weak into 2027. Retail Expansion: Paddock to Pantry plans to spend $25 million opening more than 20 grocery stores over five years, shifting from an online-led model towards physical shops. Markets: The NZX 50 gained 0.5% for the week, led by Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, while retirement village stocks remained under pressure from high bond yields and a soft housing market.

Inflation: Westpac now expects annual inflation to reach 4.2% by year-end, as higher fuel prices and a weaker New Zealand dollar lift costs; petrol recently hit a record $3.53 a litre. Primary Exports: Food and fibre exports set a record at $65.2 billion in the year to June, up 8%, led by dairy and meat and wool. Māori Business: Māori authorities’ sales fell 6.5% year-on-year to $1.01b in the June quarter, while filled jobs dropped 8.3% to 10,960. Wine: Export volumes rose 8% to 306.2 million litres in the year to June, earning $2.108b, despite a harvest 15% smaller than last year. Financial Oversight: The FMA cancelled Sydney auditor Scott Bennison’s New Zealand licence over failures tied to the 2024 audit of collapsed Greenfern Industries; he can appeal. Innovation: The 2026 KiwiNet awards recognised research being commercialised across cleantech, agriculture and space technology.

Markets: The NZX 50 edged up 0.1% after a late rally, with Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and power companies offsetting broad declines. Infratil was the biggest drag as investors weighed concerns around Australian data-centre plans. Business Leadership: Government-owned Quotable Value has named former Microsoft and Plan B Technology executive Frazer Scott as chief executive, starting October 21. Energy Investment: Yinson Renewables secured about NZ$290 million in financing for its 94.6MW Mt Cass wind farm, now under construction and expected to operate from 2028. Election Economy: National has unveiled a 47-point small-business plan focused on reducing compliance costs, while Labour says it would open banking to more competition and step in if big banks block smaller rivals. Property and Finance: Higher US Treasury yields are putting upward pressure on New Zealand mortgage rates, adding to a mixed outlook for households and businesses. Retail: Woolworths New Zealand has returned to profit as scrutiny of the supermarket sector intensifies.

Economic Transformation: The new New Zealand Institute for Advanced Technology has appointed Roman Reyhani as chief executive. The Auckland-raised technology and venture-building leader has worked across areas including AI, energy and advanced manufacturing. Market Pressure: Rising US bond yields are weighing on global shares and lifting pressure on New Zealand mortgage rates, while the weak kiwi dollar is adding to import costs. Election Business Plans: National has unveiled a 47-point small-business plan focused on reducing compliance costs and making it easier to invest and hire. Labour is promising clearer airfares, automatic refunds for disrupted flights and better access to airport infrastructure for smaller airlines. Household Finances: Stats NZ’s experimental June-quarter accounts show household disposable income rose 0.7% and spending 0.9%, while saving fell by $117 million to $2.5 billion. Local Industry: Canterbury malt producer Gladfield Malt has bought the former Malteurop site in Ashburton, retaining jobs and securing a grain-handling asset for locally grown barley.

Election and Small Business: National’s 47-point plan promises to cut compliance costs, including a “tell government once” service and a review of the GST registration threshold. Labour wants more bank competition, proposing a new licence for digital-wallet providers and action if major banks block smaller rivals. Rates and Markets: Rising global bond yields and oil prices weighed on the NZX 50, which slipped 0.1%; Infratil’s CDC data-centre valuation was marked down amid a higher-rate outlook. Global yields are also putting pressure on mortgage rates. Business Activity: Confidence has climbed to its highest level in over a year, though fuel and borrowing costs remain headwinds. Dicker Data agreed to buy New Zealand-founded tech distributor Sektor for $138 million, while CityFitness plans up to $100 million in expansion. Corporate Moves: Australian media reports suggest Infratil may consider selling One NZ’s fibre assets, potentially for up to $1 billion; no sale has been confirmed.

Banking & Election 2026: Labour says it will open New Zealand’s banking sector to more competition, including a new e-money licence for businesses, fair access to payments infrastructure for smaller providers, and a push for 24/7 real-time payments by 2030, alongside easier government-verified identity switching. Small Business Policy: National unveils a 47-point small business plan aimed at cutting compliance costs, including a “tell government once” approach, a first employee support package, simpler seasonal hiring, and a fast-track for minor employment disputes, plus a review of the $60,000 GST registration threshold. Finance Debate: On RNZ, National’s Nicola Willis and Labour’s Barbara Edmonds broadly agree on the value of renewable energy and education, but clash on how to ease cost-of-living pressure and how to fund promises. Health Infrastructure: Work is underway on Middlemore Hospital’s leaky building remediation, with $28.5m repairs progressing on the McIndoe and Kidz First buildings, expected to finish in 2028. Climate Risk: A new report says New Zealand’s greenhouse gas levels are at record highs, raising the odds of more intense heatwaves and further glacier melt. Tech & AI Partnerships: Netpoleon and BMC Helix expand their AI operations platform distribution across Australia and New Zealand. Travel & Border Tech: Luxon backs a passport-free trans-Tasman travel trial using smartphone apps and facial recognition by 2028. Energy & Local Economy: Canon will invest more than $2m annually in Canterbury, citing strong growth and adding staff and showroom capacity.

Markets & Business: The NZX 50 edged up 1.1 points to 13,700.12 as Meridian Energy and Ebos Group helped lift the benchmark, while Infratil slid on reports its CDC Data Centres partnership with Firmus Technologies has ended. Corporate Governance: Powerco welcomed new board member Juliet Tainui-Hernández, adding deep regulated-industry and central banking experience as the energy transition ramps up. Retail & Data/AI: The Warehouse Group says knowledge gaps are a business risk, pointing to its push for a “digital bench” and more agent-style internal learning to reduce reliance on individuals. Energy & Infrastructure: The Government signed a 10-year City and Regional Deal with Otago Central Lakes to align housing, transport, health, energy and economic growth. AI Regulation: OpenAI and Anthropic backed Australia moving toward mandatory reporting of serious AI agent-caused breaches, arguing disclosure shouldn’t be left solely to companies. Labour & Work Rights: Waste Management is accused of making drivers redundant unless they buy their own trucks and become owner-drivers, raising concerns about pay and work protections. Immigration/Visas: Australia published full eligibility conditions for its Global Special Humanitarian visa (subclass 202), including health, character and financial/legal obligations.

Health Funding Fight: National says it will lift Pharmac medicines funding by $604m and expand cancer screening by cutting foreign aid outside the Pacific, while NZ First’s Winston Peters calls the plan “desperate” and “dangerous” for trade and security ties. Business Confidence: NZIER’s Quarterly Survey shows confidence jumping to a net 40% expecting improvement, even as firms report softer current demand and still flag rate-rise and oil risks. Retail Pressure: Spending through Paymark at fuel outlets is up sharply as petrol prices, higher interest rates and bad weather bite, with non-food retail spending turning negative late September. Gym Expansion: CityFitness plans up to $100m expansion, targeting as many as 50 new gyms by 2031/32, with new sites across Auckland, Wellington, Bay of Plenty and more. Investment & Finance: Pāmu appoints Andrew Sliper as next CFO, with Steve McJorrow stepping down to focus on governance roles. Scam Watch: The FMA warns investors to stay alert during World Investor Week as AI deepfakes and pump-and-dump schemes keep causing major losses. Drugs Trend: Research reports cocaine use in NZ has surged, with nearly 7kg used weekly in Q2 2026. Auckland Startup Week: The city’s second annual Startup Week runs 12–16 October with 45 events and a “rebellion” theme. Public Safety & Courts: Two parents in Whakatāne were fined $1500 each for years of children missing school rolls.

Property & Lending Compliance: A tenancy tribunal case against a property manager found failures to include insulation, insurance and Healthy Homes compliance statements, plus an unlawful rent increase and unenforceable clauses across multiple tenancies—highlighting how non-compliant rentals can complicate valuations and refinancing. Markets & KiwiSaver Mood: The S&P/NZX 50 edged up late, led by Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, while housing-exposed stocks lagged on forecasts of headwinds for the rest of the year. Court Fight Over Software: A US financial services giant has started a High Court hearing in Wellington alleging a New Zealand rival copied its actuarial software—raising stakes for fintech IP in liquidation. Stablecoins Reality Check: Visa survey data shows Asia Pacific stablecoin interest is far ahead of understanding and use, with only 6% accurately grasping how they work. ADHD Access via Telehealth: Telehealth providers are filling gaps as some GPs don’t offer ADHD assessments, with patients reporting high upfront costs and faster pathways than in-person waits. Pacific Screen Funding: Pacific screen organisations warn that ending NZFC core funding from 30 June 2027 could reduce support for Pacific practitioners and stories.